UK programme strengthens defences against severe space weather
As the UK becomes increasingly aware of the risks posed by extreme weather, researchers are also strengthening the country's ability to respond to another natural hazard: severe solar storms.
New forecasting tools developed through the £20m Space Weather Innovation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk (SWIMMR) programme are now helping to protect satellites, aviation, GPS navigation and the UK electricity grid from the impacts of extreme space weather.
Led by the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the five-year programme has developed technologies that are already being incorporated into live operational forecasting systems. An independent evaluation by Frazer-Nash Consultancy concluded that the initiative has transformed the UK's ability to prepare for and respond to major solar events.
Space weather is caused by eruptions of charged particles from the Sun, known as coronal mass ejections, which can disrupt satellite communications, navigation systems and electricity networks. The UK Government classifies severe space weather as a top-tier national risk, alongside pandemic disease and major flooding, with previous estimates suggesting a major event could have an economic impact of £9bn.
The programme's capabilities were put to the test during the geomagnetic storm of May 2024, when the Northern Lights became visible across much of the UK. While the aurora attracted public attention, scientists at the British Geological Survey were using a new SWIMMR forecasting system to identify electricity substations most at risk from geomagnetically induced currents. According to STFC, it was the first time the UK had possessed this level of operational foresight.
Running between 2019 and 2024, SWIMMR brought together universities, national laboratories, industry and government organisations, including the Met Office, British Geological Survey, British Antarctic Survey and STFC's RAL Space. The programme focused on improving forecast accuracy, expanding access to space weather data and accelerating the transfer of research into operational forecasting tools.
Professor Ian McCrea, resilient society theme lead at RAL Space and head of the SWIMMR programme, said: "SWIMMR has delivered a major advance in the UK's space-weather capability, turning cutting-edge research into improved operational forecasting tools to protect satellites, aviation and the electricity grid.
"It has strengthened the UK's ability to understand and respond to severe solar activity in real-time, placing the UK among the leading nations developing operational space-weather forecasting capability, through close international collaboration."
Among the programme's outputs are five UK-developed forecasting models covering radiation hazards, solar wind, ionospheric disruption and impacts on electricity networks, all of which are moving into operational use at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre. Researchers also developed a cloud-based platform that reduced the time needed to transfer forecasting models into operational systems from several years to around six months, while new measurement tools are already supplying live data to forecasters. Full integration is expected by the end of 2026.
The programme also delivered advances across several application areas, including the UK's first operational forecasts of radiation hazards affecting satellites, new real-time models of radiation exposure for aircraft operating on polar routes, the country's first end-to-end forecasting system for geomagnetically induced currents affecting the electricity grid, and enhanced facilities for testing how electronic components perform under radiation conditions associated with severe solar storms.
The independent evaluation concluded that SWIMMR had delivered a step change in UK space weather capability across research, operational forecasting and industry.
Professor McCrea said the next priority was ensuring that the programme's advances became fully embedded in operational services and continued to evolve through real-world use. Pic: SWIMMR.
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