New method for volcano eruption forecast developed
18 Dec 2015 by Evoluted New Media
By estimating the pressure in the magma-chamber of a volcano, geologists have developed a method to accurately predict volcanic eruptions.
By estimating the pressure in the magma-chamber of a volcano, geologists have developed a method to accurately predict volcanic eruptions.
A research team from the Department of Earth Sciences at Royal Holloway used new geological and historical data from a volcano in Greece to estimate the pressure increase in the magma-chamber – an underground pool filled with molten rock – when it’s being refilled and forecast when it is likely to cause an eruption.
PhD student John Browning said: “We have been able to provide constraints on the volume of magma stored in a shallow magma chamber underneath Santorini Caldera. We believe our new model can be used to forecast the timing of magma-chamber rupture at Santorini and, eventually, at well-monitored volcanoes worldwide.”
In the study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, the team collected data on the type of magma which feeds eruptions from the Santorini volcano in Greece and performed structural analysis of magma-filled fractures – dykes – exposed along the northern wall of the volcano.
“Whilst this is an important step towards reliable prediction of volcanic eruptions, a number of challenges still exist. For example, even if the magma chamber were to rupture we currently have no way of predicting whether the magma-filled fracture injected from the chamber will make it to the surface. In most cases the magma stalls or stops before it reaches the surface. Under which conditions magma stalls in volcanoes (preventing eruption) is among the most important unsolved problems in volcanology,” said Browning.
By applying the new technique the team found that the measured 0.02% increase in volume of Santorini’s shallow magma chamber in 2012 was associated with magmatic excess pressure increase of around 1.1MPa. They believe this excess pressure was high enough to bring the chamber roof close to rupture and dyke injection.
The geologists believe this method could forecast when magma chambers in other volcanoes could rupture and potentially lead to eruptions, which should aid emergency planning and risk assessments.
