Carbon measurement – providing the foundations for addressing climate change

Jane Burston, Head of the Centre for Carbon Measurement at the National Physical Laboratory, explains why the development of measurement infrastructure is vital to understanding climate change impacts and advancing low carbon technologies

In 2008 the UK became the first country in the world to set legally binding carbon targets. The Climate Change Act set goals for emission reductions of 34% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 from 1990 levels. Policies to meet these targets involve carbon trading, incentivising energy efficiency and renewable energy generation and improving our physical infrastructure such as the electricity grid and transport system. Scientifically underpinned measurement is critical to achieving all of these.

As the well-worn adage goes, you can’t manage what you don’t measure. The government needs accurate data about our emissions in order to understand where the greatest potential for emissions reduction lies. At an international scale, more accurate measurement of data about the earth – such as temperature, greenhouse gas concentrations and so on – can enable us to predict with more certainty what the timing and extent of climate change impacts might be.  The more accurately we are able to make these projections, the better policy-makers can determine the level of reduction required to keep us from catastrophic climate change.

Measurement is also essential to the implementation of climate change policy. If industries are reducing their carbon emissions, for example through carbon capture and storage, they need to be able to prove the effectiveness and safety of the processes and technologies being used.

Accurate measurement will help us to grow a low carbon and environmental goods and services sector that can deliver both nationally and internationally. It will allow the UK to continue to lead the world as the financial centre of the global carbon market (projected to grow to over $1 trillion by 2020).

Based at one of the UK’s leading science and research facilities, the National Physical Laboratory, the Centre for Carbon Measurement is already involved in more than £6m of climate data and low carbon technology projects a year. Our goal is to establish the measurement infrastructure to enable a better understanding of climate change and support the UK’s transition to a low carbon economy.

[caption id="attachment_28586" align="alignright" width="200" caption="The Centre for Carbon Measurement is based at the National Physical Laboratory"][/caption]

Stakeholders from across government, academia and business have been consulted to inform the focus of the Centre’s projects. The result is a focus on three crucial areas for our future work:  reporting and reducing uncertainties in climate data used to monitor and model climate change; supporting existing and emerging tax, trade and regulatory instruments for carbon pricing and reporting; and accelerating the development and validating the performance of low carbon technologies.

One area where measurement is becoming increasingly vital is climate change. Work to date enables us to say with a huge degree of confidence that our climate is changing due to man-made emissions. What the data and climate models do not yet allow us to predict, with the certainty we would like and need, is the future impact of climate change and how quickly and where the impacts will be felt.

Climate quality data represent a classic measurement challenge; we are seeking to create long-term projections, based on many variables, against a ‘noisy’ background, using different instruments across the globe. We need to improve the accuracy of climate change data in order to better inform government policy regarding mitigation and adaptation programmes, and in which areas our resources would have the biggest impact. For example, when do countries need to start moving populations away from low-lying and coastal areas?  Or, to use an example closer to home, when do we need to invest in a larger Thames Barrier?

The Centre for Carbon Measurement will help to develop new standards to validate the sensors used by satellites to monitor the Earth’s atmosphere, oceans and land. This will allow laboratory-quality measurements of climate parameters to be made from space – essentially launching National Measurement Institutes into orbit.

The Centre is also conducting research into the discrepancy between measured and modelled radiative transmission through the atmosphere – one of the major uncertainties in climate change research. These measurements need to be traceable and consistent to allow comparison with data gathered from other sources, for example ground-based monitoring stations. Comparing measurements from different sources allows us to form a more complete picture. A joint project between the Centre for Carbon Measurement and the University of Reading has been carried out to address this issue: accurate ground-level measurements of atmospheric transmission from incoming solar radiation are taken and combined with high-resolution radiative modelling.

If industries are reducing their carbon emissions, for example through carbon capture and storage, they need to be able to prove the effectiveness and safety of the process and the technologies being used

Carbon trading and accounting is a key focus of the Centre’s work; aimed at supporting the measurement infrastructure necessary to create a stable market for carbon trading.

Countries that have agreed to cap their carbon emissions often purchase carbon credits to help meet their allocated quantity. These credits may be produced by emission-reducing projects in developing countries, such as reforestation. The sector has in the past been the subject of criticism due to the lack of confidence in the data. Offsetting projects will increasingly need to rely on accurate physical measurement systems to validate the extent of carbon dioxide mitigation and sustain a viable carbon trading system.

[caption id="attachment_28587" align="alignleft" width="200" caption="Carbon sequestraton activities require correct measurement to determine effectiveness"][/caption]

The Centre has access to world leading atmospheric measurement facilities and scientists. It has developed, with industry partners, a range of technologies that could be adapted to measure CO? emissions. This includes a unique Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) that generates a 3D map of emissions and calculates the concentrations, providing rapid, accurate measurements of airborne emissions up to 3 km away.

Heavy-duty industries that emit carbon dioxide also have to purchase carbon credits to help mitigate their effect on climate change. Under the existing EU Allowance (EUA), for every tonne of carbon emitted, organisations must purchase a credit. As well as creating costly outgoings, the supply of allowances is limited; therefore organisations need to consider alternative ways to process carbon emissions.

One example of a low carbon technology the Centre is working on is Carbon Capture and Storage.  Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) could help to mitigate climate change by reducing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere – through pumping emissions underground to securely store them. One of the biggest challenges facing this technology is ensuring that the captured CO? does not leak back into the atmosphere. To certify this, measurement infrastructure is needed to monitor escaping CO? emissions, at all stages of the process. This will allow companies to verify for regulators how much is being safely stored.

CCS facilities are likely to be in depleted oil and gas reservoirs, which are often under the seabed. Gas bubbles created by CO? strongly scatter sound and may be detected using imaging or sonar techniques. Geo-acoustic sensors could be positioned on the sea-floor to detect movement and provide early warning of the changes in sea-bed composition. The Centre for Carbon Measurement has the relevant facilities for testing marine acoustics, allowing underwater acoustic measurement to be monitored and validated.

As the international community seeks to develop more sophisticated and coordinated tools, it will become increasingly important that the underpinning measurement infrastructure keeps in step. The work by the Centre for Carbon Measurement will enable regulation, ensure fair and stable carbon markets, support businesses in reporting and managing emissions, and provide confidence to establish and meet international agreements.

Developers of low carbon products need scientific validation of their technologies to ensure regulations are met, secure investment, and reassure customers that the claims about the product are valid. Such support is key to commercialising advances in areas such as energy efficient technology including building efficiencies, fuel cells, photovoltaics and offshore renewables and smart devices.

The measurement challenges faced by developers and users of low-carbon technologies are often best solved in real-world situations rather than in a lab setting. Part of the Centre’s work will build on an existing NPL facility which measures real-world energy performance of large building sections and products to evaluate real-world building energy performance through a series of physical parameters traceable to primary measurement standards.

The Centre’s work will also focus on improving the quality of electricity supply and guaranteeing fair trade of energy. It will use the UK’s world-leading capabilities in the area of Power Quality and Power Efficiency measurement, which is currently being used to improve the accuracy of on-site measurements of electricity grids. As power generation becomes decentralised, with increasing numbers of wind turbines and solar panels, the electricity grid needs to evolve into a system capable of both giving and taking back energy.

The current system distributes power outwards from a central source to increasingly remote areas where electricity demand decreases and infrastructure quality degrades. These remote areas generate electricity from small-scale renewables and transmit some of this back into the grid – along power lines not designed to carry it.

Smart grids will solve this problem, but whilst the hardware required to implement them is available, the theoretical and practical knowledge required to ensure their stability is not. The Centre is working to improve the accuracy of on-site measurements, vital for maintaining the quality of electricity supply and guaranteeing fair trade of energy.

Coupled with this, the Centre will develop capability for remote monitoring of power quality and efficiency from electrically or environmentally harsh conditions, such as North Sea wind turbines, making asset maintenance easier.

UK measurement scientists have also worked with industry to focus on the three fundamental problems facing fuel cells: cost, durability and the need for a refuelling infrastructure. Working with leading fuel cell developers, the Centre is addressing knowledge gaps in temperature distribution, catalyst activity and degradation in solid oxide and polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells. It is also providing industry with measurement and modelling tools to characterise fuel cell performance in a number of environments.

Using this data, manufacturers of fuel cells could speed up development of an infrastructure and supply chain for this emerging market.

The development of a national measurement infrastructure to meet these carbon challenges supports many of the individual activities set out in the Department for Energy and Climate Change’s Carbon Plan. In addition, the Centre will aim to support the up-skilling of the UK workforce for a low carbon future, provide significant direct economic benefit to the UK and ensure the UK continues to be seen as a leader in the global effort to address climate change.

Launched in March 2012, the first year of activity for the Centre of Carbon Measurement will bring together existing expertise and building new capabilities alongside our partners. We are looking for those with an interest in this area – from business, government and academia – to work with us to expand the capabilities of the Centre and to take advantage of our expertise to advance their own low carbon practices, technologies and research.

Without a robust measurement infrastructure, it is difficult to know the scale of the climate problem or the adequacy of the solutions – whether those are policies, projects or technologies. NPL’s existing work in these areas has gone a long way to helping solve some of the most pressing issues. With the introduction of the Centre for Carbon Measurement at a world leading centre of excellence in measurement science, NPL and its partners will be able to make a profound and global difference.

Contact: http://www.npl.co.uk/carbon-measurement/

The author: Jane Burston, Head of the Centre for Carbon Measurement at the National Physical Laboratory