Looking forward to a White Christmas?
15 Dec 2011 by Evoluted New Media
We all dream of a white Christmas, but things in Lapland are looking less than snowy.
Scottish researchers have predicted that by 2050, Santa’s official home of Rovaniemi will experience black rather than white Christmases because of a shortened snow season bought about by rising temperatures.
The Finnish Environment Institute has forecast that by 2050 temperatures in Finnish Lapland will rise by up to 3.8°C and average rainfall will increase. They also predict earlier spring flooding and a shorter snow season.
A team from the University of the Highlands and Islands (UHI) in Perth used this information and other data to put together flood hazard maps and investigate vulnerabilities to Lapland’s tourism market.
“The potential economic impacts of snow melt and river flow changes in Finnish Lapland on tourism and flood protection were identified as a cause for concern,” said Clive Bowman, a research fellow at UHI.
“In response, changes in snow and floods were simulated by the Finnish Environment Institute using several climate scenarios, including a conceptual histological model incorporating snow. In Rovaniemi, the risk of a ‘black’ Christmas increases as the start of the permanent snow cover is delayed.”
Bowman said it’s worth noting that maximum values of snow decrease less than the averages, whereas the minimum values decrease more – meaning that although winters with little snow will become more common in the future, there will still be winters with lots of snow.
The three year Clim-ATIC study involved experts in Greenland, Finland, Norway, Sweden and Scotland and studied the potential impacts of climate change on small rural communities in northern countries and strategies to adapt to new conditions.
