Undersea volcano erupts as predicted

A new eruption of an undersea volcano has been discovered after scientist correctly predicted the event.

A team from Oregon State University discovered the eruption of Axial Seamount – an undersea volcano 250 miles of the coast of Oregon – earlier this year. Researchers – who have been monitoring Axial since its last eruption in 1998 – predicted five years ago that it was due to erupt.

“Volcanoes are notoriously difficult to forecast and much less is known about undersea volcanoes than those on land, so the ability to monitor Axial Seamount, and determine that it was on a path toward an impending eruption is pretty exciting,” said geologist Bill Chadwick.

Chadwick and his colleagues have monitored Axial Seamount using precise bottom pressure sensors – similar to those used to detect tsunamis – to measure vertical movements of the floor of the caldera.

They discovered the volcano was gradually inflating at a rate of 15cm a year – magma was rising and accumulating under the volcano summit. When it last erupted, the caldera deflated by 3.2m – the scientists estimated the volcano would erupt when re-inflation pushed the caldera up to the 1998 level.

“Forecasting the eruption of most land volcanoes is normally very difficult at best and the behaviour of most is complex and variable,” said Scott Nooner. “We now have evidence, however, that Axial Seamount behaves in a more predictable way than many other volcanoes – likely due to its robust magma supply coupled with its crust, and its location on a mid-ocean ridge spreading centre.”

Using Jason – a remotely operated vehicle – scientists discovered new lava flow on the seafloor that wasn’t present the year before. In fact, the floor looked so different and they couldn’t see any of their markers, the scientists thought they were in the wrong place. Upon recovery of their sensors, scientists showed the eruption took place on 6th April this year.

The work has been published in the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research and researchers will continue to monitor the area to see if they can successful forecast the next event.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

Check out a video following the lava flow at www.youtube.com/labnews