Rainforests will suffer more due to climate change

Scientists say if current climate change and use of the Amazon rainforests continue unchallenged, the dieback of the rainforests is inevitable.

Collaborative research - led by the University of Oxford - has produced published findings based on a comparison of simulations of global climate models and actual climate observations, and indicates that there has been an underestimation of Amazonian rainfall. When this underestimation is then applied to climate simulations, there appears to be a shift from the current climate to a more seasonally dry “monsoonal” climate.

The study then went on to examine the effect of seasonal drying on the existing rainforests, using data from recent ecological field studies. The seasonal forests, while appearing to be resilient to occasional drought, will become much more vulnerable to the risk of forest fires. Deforestation and logging destroys large areas of rainforest and adds to the risk of forest fires spreading out of control. This causes damage not only to the forests, but also to the local towns and economy of the local people. Professor Yadvinder Malhi, lead author of the study, suggests that maintenance of the existing forest cover will help minimise dieback in the face of global climate change.

“The active forest protection in the Amazon forest region can help the region adapt to climate change and minimise the effect of a dieback. This strategy will also contribute to the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions”. The professor cites ambitious plans announced by Brazil to slow down deforestation, and suggests that Brazil be given international support for their efforts.

By Georgina Lavender